Garrison, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Garrison ND
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Garrison ND
Issued by: National Weather Service Bismarck, ND |
Updated: 9:50 pm CDT Jul 24, 2025 |
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Tonight
 Mostly Clear
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Friday
 Slight Chance Showers then Slight Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Saturday
 Hot
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Saturday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Sunday
 Chance T-storms
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Sunday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Monday
 Mostly Sunny
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Monday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Lo 61 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 62 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 62 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
Lo 61 °F |
Hi 79 °F |
Lo 57 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tonight
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Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Southeast wind around 6 mph. |
Friday
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A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Friday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday
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Sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. |
Saturday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. |
Sunday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 6 to 10 mph. |
Sunday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. North wind 6 to 10 mph. |
Monday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. North wind 6 to 9 mph. |
Monday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. |
Tuesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind 6 to 10 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind 6 to 8 mph. |
Wednesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. |
Thursday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 76. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Garrison ND.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
639
FXUS63 KBIS 250235
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
935 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible late
tonight southwest and south central.
- Periodic showers and thunderstorms Friday through this
weekend. A few strong to severe storms are possible.
- Hot and humid Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s, followed by a cooling trend beginning Sunday and
continuing into the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
For this update, have only made minor changes to the sky grids
to blend in the latest observations. Overally, quiet weather
continues across wesern and central North Dakota this evening.
Weak reflectivites were occasionally found over portions of the
far southwest earlier, though these were asssociated with very
high based clouds over a fairly dry near surface layer. Thus,
little to no precipitation associated with these reflectivities
were thought to reach the ground. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track at this time.
UPDATE
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
No major updates to the forecast were performed at this time.
Generally quiet weather is found across western and central
North Dakota, with mostly clear skies as scattered cumulus
clouds lingers. Still evaluating the potential for fog
development tonight, with an interrogation of BUFKIT model
soundings favorably shaped for advection fog Friday morning.
However, with fairly dry near surface conditions expected to be
found across the forecast area, CAMs continue to not bite at
visibility reductions. Will continue to monitor model trends,
but even if fog does end up developing Friday morning it should
be relatively sparse compared to the this (Thursday) morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
Currently, a broad area of weak high pressure is situated over
the forecast area. A weak shortwave within a broad northwest
upper flow is producing an area of showers and possibly some
isolated thunderstorms from the northern James River Valley,
eastward into eastern ND. This non-severe activity should
propagate eastward through the afternoon. Other than that small
area of convection, expect mostly dry conditions through the
afternoon with highs mainly in the 80s.
For tonight, it looks to be mostly dry this evening, the
possible exception may be the far southwest. Convection over
northeast Wyoming into southeast Montana may track east near the
SD border, but most guidance has this activity remaining south
of the border. Late this evening and more likely overnight, we
see increasing warm advection over southwest and into south
central ND. The atmosphere is quite dry over the far southwest
above 10-15kft but moistens as you go east. CAMS have been
advertising convection developing southwest into south central
ND mostly after midnight as the llj increases. The main hazard
would probably be some small hail. Although a few larger
hailstones can`t be ruled out, the thinking at this time is
that severe weather will not be an issue.
Friday and Saturday will bring a couple days of hot and humid
weather to the local area with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
Each day will bring a moderate to strong instability to much of
western and central North Dakota. Friday will bring generally
weak shear of 20-30 knots. There is a northern stream wave well
to our north with an weak reflection at the surface that tracks
into the forecast area in the late afternoon/early evening
hours. This may be enough of a focus mechanism to spark
convection. It`s possible that initially there could be a
supercell capable of producing large hail to golf ball size, but
given the overall weakly sheared environment, hail up to the
size of ping pong balls was decided on, which remains consistent
with this mornings forecast. Winds to 60 mph will also be a
hazard, as well as very heavy rain. Although there is a non-zero
threat of a tornado, would like to see a bit more consistency in
the CAMS and another run of the medium range models before
advertising.
This front stalls out over the area and may be the focus for
convection again on Saturday. Once again it will become very
unstable Saturday afternoon, with shear increasing from the west
during the day. Currently there is a marginal risk for severe
storms on Saturday. Think a lot of what happens Saturday may
depend on how things play out tomorrow, regarding where
boundaries lie and which areas may be favored for convection.
Would not be surprised to see an upgrade to slight risk for
some portion of the forecast area as well, but predictability
remains quite high at this time. Will continue to monitor.
Sunday may bring another round of thunderstorms, but will also
bring the beginnings of a cooling trend that continues into the
middle of next week. Highs in the 80s Sunday drop into the 70s
by Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time it does appear that the
probability of severe weather tapers as we enter next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
VFR ceilings and visibilities are mainly anticipated throughout
the 00Z TAF period. Early tonight, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are anticipated to sweep across south central
North Dakota through late tomorrow morning. While confidence
remains too low to include any prevailing precip/thunder in the
TAFs with this update, have added PROB30 groups for KBIS early
this morning, then at KJMS in the mid to late morning. Patchy
fog is also possible tomorrow morning, though the highest
chances remain in the Turtle Mountains area, and thus visibility
reductions at any terminals are not currently anticipated.
Through the late afternoon and beyond the end of the TAF period,
more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the forecast area. Light and variable winds early
this evening will generally organize out of the south southeast
overnight. Through the late morning and afternoon, south winds
will strengthen across south central North Dakota, becoming
breezy with sustained speeds up to 20 knots and gusts up to 30
knots. Where thunderstorms do develop, gusty and erratic winds
should be anticipated.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Adam/TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Adam
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